It wasn’t that long ago that Spalding United boss Pat Rayment considered 80 points to be the golden figure in the race for promotion.
Fast forward a few months and that now looks like a number that may not even be enough to secure the Tulips a place in the play-offs.
Saturday’s 1-1 draw at second-placed Leek Town left Rayment’s side on 77 points with three games to play – a position they’d have been delighted with at the turn of the year.
Two wins from their final three games, Stocksbridge Park Steels at home on Saturday (3pm), Tividale away on Tuesday (7.45pm) and Romulus away (3pm) on Saturday week will guarantee a place in the play-offs.
But that’s easier said than done, with both Tividale and Romulus in fine end of season form and Sutton Coldfield Town and Stafford Rangers ready to pounce if the Spalding slip-up.
Although he’s determined to finish in the top three, Rayment now feels that it’s highly unlikely his side can get any higher than fourth.
That would likely mean a one-off away tie at either Leek or Newcastle Town in the end of season play-offs.
The Spalding supremo reckons that formula is fair to all of the sides battling for promotion – and now just wants his charges to book their place in the top five.
“I just don’t think we can get into that top three,” admitted Rayment. “I don’t see Leek or Newcastle losing enough games, sadly.
“They’ll be in the top three, so it’ll be between us, Gresley, Sutton Coldfield and Stafford.
“A lot of us managers were talking about 80 points behind the magic number this season – but the bar has certainly been raised.
“We could finish on 82 points and miss out, which would be very tough to take.
“Only last week I was very hopeful we could get a home play-off tie. Now I’m just hoping we can guarantee our place really.
“It’s a good system – and very fair.
“It makes finishing as high as possible a real benefit and I have no complaints.”
Spalding will be hot favourites to collect three big points at home to 18th-placed Stocksbridge on Saturday.
Rayment is hopeful that he’ll have defensive lynchpins Nathan Stainfield and Jamie Stevens available again after injury, while striker Ryan Oliver will be back in the squad after being recalled from his loan spell with Boston Town.
The game is likely to be Spalding’s final home match of the campaign.
Tuesday’s lengthy trip to Tividale, who haven’t lost in the league since February 28, looks a much tougher proposition.
The West Midlands based side won the reverse 2-0 at the Sir Halley and are eighth in the table.
Rayment added: “We can’t look past Stocksbridge. It’s a good one for us on paper, but we can’t discount them.
“Tividale away on a Tuesday will be very tough, but I’m not focusing on that one until after Saturday.
“Saturday is a big one. We’ve made great strides and elevated the club to new heights in the past few years, so it’d be great if the town got behind us and we got a few more though the door.
“Having Ryan back in the squad is a boost. I’m expecting him to be fresh and fit after the loan spell.
“I’m hopeful I’ll have a full squad to pick from, it’s vital that we get three points.”
Follow @Andrew_Clucas on Twitter for live updates from Saturday’s Stocksbridge clash.
