If on Friday, June 24 the UK has voted to leave the EU, Clause 50 of the Lisbon Treaty will be activated.
The UK government informs the Executive of the European Council that the UK will be leaving the European Union. It in turn informs the president of the EU Commission, who informs the governments of the 27 remaining states.
The EU Commission has been given the authority/competency to negotiate trade agreements on behalf of the EU. The commission will initiate consultations with the appropriate elected representatives and domestic civil servants (some on secondment to Brussels) of each EU member to establish a collective agreement on the terms to be offered to the departing state to regulate its relationship with the EU.
Minor differences between the 27 will be determined through the weighted majority voting arrangements. Serious disagreements would be resolved at a Council of Ministers (Head of Government) meeting. The EU parliament has to be informed of progress and its concerns considered but with no power to amend proposals. If agreed by the Council of Ministers the proposed terms will need to be ratified by each member’s Parliament.
The Government of the departing state can play no role in the formulation of the terms of departure to be offered to the departing state. The Lisbon Treaty allows two years to complete the process of withdrawal which, with the unanimous consent of the 27, can be extended.
For at least two years’ post, the UK will legally be a member of the EU, subject to all the existing or additional regulations and directives, paying its full contribution in to EU budget and an obligation to facilitate the free movement of capital and labour. Only when the terms of withdrawal have been agreed would the UK be free of its EU commitments.
Clause 50 of the Lisbon Treaty is designed to protect the interests of the remaining 27, not the convenience of the departing member. The 27 will protect their national interest. They have a financial incentive to delay the process to give them time to adjust the EU budget revenue and expenditure policies and to ensure an orderly withdrawal from the plethora of non financial arrangements. The EU democratic processes proceed with the agreement of the member states not at the whim of the president of the EU Commission.
No responsible government would crash out of the EU. We have far more to lose than the EU. No third party government would begin serious negotiations on future trading deals until the terms of departure are known.
On the basis of past precedent the UK’s continuing access to the single market will still rest on a continuing substantial contribution into the EU budget plus the continuing free movement of labour.
Paul Walls
Spalding
